BhaskarRoy
Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests. In this exclusive column for Sify.com, he points out various instances where China has betrayed India's confidence and suggests methods for the government to deal with a country that plays underhand politics.
China appears to have adopted the posture of the legendary smiling Buddha. But that smile hides a stupendous power in the making. This may be a kind of crude metaphor, but quite apt, given China’s preparations to emerge as a power to reckon with by 2020.
It is a heady thought, though it but may send shivers down the spine of smaller neighbouring countries. Vietnam has already sampled a test case of what could happen. Recently, China moved a domestic law declaring the Parcel Islands, a disputed territory between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea, as Chinese territory. Countries with territorial disputes with China should take note of this move.
The Spratly Islands in the South China Sea are claimed by six countries. But China claims the whole group of islands as its own. China and the other countries came to an understanding on maintaining peace and status quo, and joint development of the resources. Beijing, however, incrementally encroached on more than five hundred atolls, reefs and shoals. The sea around these islands is believed to be rich in gas and oil.
Energy-starved China, to maintain its 9 per cent plus growth, is unlikely to share these resources with the other countries claiming the territory. When Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh arrives in Beijing on January 13, 2008 for a three-day visit, he will be carrying in his portfolio the Sino-Indian border and territorial issue. China claims about 1,28, 000 sq km of Indian territory which includes 90 thousand sq km in the Eastern Sector, that is, the entire Arunachal Pradesh. The last Chinese Ambassador to India, Sun Yuxi, made the Chinese claim very clear in the run up to the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to India in November 2006.
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Talking to an Indian television channel, Sun, while emphasising China’s claim on Tawang, categorically said that China claims the whole of Arunachal Pradesh. Ambassador Sun’s declaration obviously had the clearance from the highest authorities in Beijing. He repeated the claim again in Chandigarh some time later.
A few days before President Hu’s arrival in India, a Chinese official think tank held a closed-door seminar in Beijing, making the same claims and obliquely cautioning India. Two Indians, who had nothing to do with the Indian government and representing no Indian organisation, were invited to this seminar and described as ‘Indian delegates’. This is the worst diplomatic affront.
This is not something of the past. The Chinese do not change their positions frequently. What they do is, if necessary, not raise the issue temporarily. Their positions are well-considered and long term till that objective is achieved. Therefore, when a compromise is arrived at they get a little more than their bottom line.
The same thing happened in their border and territorial negotiations with Russia and the erstwhile Soviet States. Chinese officials have been doing a hoola hoop act with their Indian interlocutors on the boundary issue.
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One can go back to the so-called package deal offered by Deng Xiaoping in 1988. When cornered, the Chinese claimed that it was a “thought” not an “offer”. Yet many Indians believe that India repeatedly turns down Chinese proposals. This is the power of Chinese propaganda. Some Indians are mesmerised by the spectacular economic growth of China, some remain in the awe of the 1962 border war, others feel that a “give in” policy now is better than wait for an overwhelming China.
There are sections of the border in the Western extremities that do not come up in open discussions. Beijing has avoided going beyond what is known currently as the Western Sector. This should include the more than 5000 sq km of territory in Pakistan occupied Kashmir – ceded by Pakistan to China in 1963 – through which the Karakoram highway passes.
China talks about high morals, yet does not hesitate to cut a deal with a party illegally occupying territory for its own use. China has virtually torn apart the 2005 agreement on the modalities and political parameters for resolving the boundary issue, which was signed at the highest level during Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to India.
It is obviously a matter of concern when a country of the size and political weight like China tears up an agreement signed at such a high level even before the ink dries. This should also cause concern among the smaller countries of the ASEAN group over various agreements they have signed with Beijing. Evidence suggests that the gulf between China’s written word and action on the ground is growing. Recent reports in the Indian media on Chinese incursions on Indian soil did not spring out of the imagination of journalists.
Most of the reports came from near the spot or eyewitnesses. But the Indian government, the foreign ministry in particular, refrained from comment. The government has its own role and responsibility. It would be immature diplomacy to raise such issues when high level bilateral visits were taking place and Prime Minister’s visit was coming up. Beijing’s old policy of meddling in India’s neighbourhood is an ongoing activity.
Apart from Pakistan, which is China’s military forward command confronting India, it has been increasingly encouraging anti-India political and business forces in Bangladesh, Nepal and even Sri Lanka. Providing C-802 cruise missiles to the Bangladesh navy is not exactly a friendly gesture to India. It is also seeking special port facilities in Bangladesh. China has been negotiating the construction of a seaport in Chittagong’s Kutubdia shore, and construction of a road from Chittagong to China’s Yunan province through Myanmar.
Despite the Sino-Indian strategic partnership there has been little to show. While working on oil security partnership, India was outdone by China in a Kazakhstan bloc bid. After the bidding was closed and India had won, it was quietly reopened for a short time without the knowledge of the Indian delegation to allow the Chinese team to make a fresh bid lower than that of India’s. How does India trust a country like that? This is just one example
Chinese positions opposing India in various regional and international fora have been well documented. The most recent is China’s stand against the proposed India-US nuclear agreement under negotiation. As a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Groups (NSG) and a member of the board of the International Atomic Energy Association (Indian is also a director of the IAEA), Beijing is in a position to play the spoiler. It has opposed the proposed agreement under the present conditions.
India needs to tell Beijing without any ambiguity that geography is a fact of nature and neither country can move away physically. Therefore, only coexisting with a stable and mutually beneficial relationship can make for a prosperous Asian century. Or, one could inject tensions and sabotage each other and make the continent instable. Indian opts for the former.
If China has internal political problems to resolve the boundary issue equitably, it can be frozen for the future when the situation is more conducive to address the same. In the meantime, the border must be kept tranquil and peaceful as per the 1993 agreement. The Chinese leaders must understand that enough space must be created in Asia for both the countries to live and work together. There is no other option. While China’s booming economy is powering its gigantic military machine, India is also growing steadily with a much stronger and stable economic base.
Beijing is trying to dictate to India what it should not do at the cost of attracting its ire. This primarily revolves around India’s defence development, military exercises with the US and other countries, and the India-US-Japan-Australia security talks among other acts. This is far from acceptable to India, and borders on interference in India’s domestic policies.
China should be assured there is no Indian strategy to form a coalition to encircle China. It is not in India’s interest. For now, Beijing has suddenly gone for a charm offensive. This is primarily directed at Taiwan, its so-called renegade province; Japan, which is perceived as a closet supporter of Taiwan’s independence; and the US, the main player where Taiwan, Japan and the Dalai Lama are concerned. Hence, Beijing has decided to smoothen interactions with Washington despite provocative American acts like honouring the Dalai Lama with the Congressional medal by President Bush.
“Hide your strength, bide your time,” advised Communist China’s most sagacious and strategically versatile leader, Deng Xiaoping. But the new Chinese leaders appear to be impatient to show their strength. The reason could even be due to internal political compulsion — factional power struggle.
This, however, does not bode well for the region. Apparently to remind India of its superiority, China conducts an unfriendly act around the last day or immediately after the visit of a top Indian leader to China. The last time it happened was on June 26, 2003 when Prime Minister Vajpayee was winding up his China visit. About 70 heavily armed Chinese soldiers arrested a small India patrol in the perceived Indian territory in the eastern sector, disarmed them and insulted them. This, after a successful Prime Ministerial visit. We have to see what the Chinese do this time.
The views expressed in the article are the author's and not of Sify.com.
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