Why Assam bleeds

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Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests.

In 2005, the then Bangladesh Foreign Minister Morshed Khan had warned that if India surrounds Bangladesh, Bangladesh also surrounds India.

Though New Delhi dismissed the statement as a poor joke, Khan, who comes from one of Bangladesh’s established business families and is part of the old Pakistani “aristocracy”, was not speaking lightly.

What Morshed Khan warned of is what we are witnessing today in Assam and other parts of North-East India.

NHRC issues notice to Assam over ethnic violence

The problem is not new. Following the partition of India in 1947, there were two types of immigration from the erstwhile East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. One was the Hindu migration in bulk at different phases, but a constant trickle remains. Most of them moved because of persecution by the Muslim majority in Bangladesh. A very small portion of these Hindu migrants could very well be drawn into sectarian extremism unless something is done.

The second was the migration of Muslims, who were basically economic migrants. They were landless and jobless people who were welcomed by politicians in both Assam and West Bengal for their votes, and their migration has continued unabated.

Is the ULFA crumbling?

Political parties in these two states help these migrants illegally acquire ration cards as citizenship proof, and enlist many of them as party workers. Every major political party in these states has regularly resorted to this. Such appalling tactics led to the creation of the ULFA and other problems in Assam.

Economic under-development, combined with the massive flow of illegal immigrants after the birth of Bangladesh in 1971, led to immense resentment in Assam against the Bengali speaking Muslim migrants, and eventually against migrants from Indian states too, particularly labourers from Bihar.

Reactions to the October 30 bomb blasts in Assam, which left 74 dead and more than 300 injured, is a stark reminder of the callousness of our political leadership towards the region.

The Congress suddenly played coy, trying to look for culprits where none exists.

The BJP’s prime minister in waiting, L. K. Advani, reiterated the well-worn gramophone record on the UPA’s failure to fight terrorism, forgetting that the NDA’s record in the same area is equally dismal.

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The left parties, led by the CPM, generally ducked, apprehending that criticizing any Muslim group could further damage its Muslim vote bank in West Bengal, where the party has already found itself in difficulty.

Radical Islamic groups from Bangladesh, which have a much larger agenda than just preaching Wahabi Islam in Assam, have been growing exponentially in the state for sometime. For example, the Muslim United Liberation Force of Assam (MULTA), has been active for a number of years now.

But despite intelligence agencies reporting on this outfit, the previous NDA government at the center did nothing, while the state government and local political parties remained obtuse and vague.

The MULTA works among the Bangladeshi migrants in the state, and these people had acquired the necessary papers mostly illegally, to vote. Yet the fact that the outfit had extensive links with Islamic Jihadi groups in Bangladesh like the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI-B), Pakistan’s ISI operating in Bangladesh, and the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), the Bangladeshi version the ISI, was never raised by Indian politicians due to the fear of losing Muslim votes.

Religious denominations, terrorism, sectarian riots, and electoral votes are getting into a cyclical relationship which no politician is able to seriously address because of political compulsions. But unless we are able to put our own house in order, we will be making it that much easier for external forces to keep India under a low intensity war of attrition, which is already costing the country dearly.

North East of what?

The governments of three nations which share borders with India have a direct interest in weakening India.

Pakistan carries a lot of historical baggage against India. While the appreciation of India among the civil society in Pakistan is slowly taking a turn for the positive, the military and the ISI remain firmly on their old path.

In Bangladesh, the anti-liberation forces led by the BNP and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) have succeeded in creating a large anti-India section among the people, especially engineering its intelligence agencies like the DGFI and sections of the armed forces to assist Pakistani operations against India from Bangladeshi soil.

China has a much larger strategy of creating a China-centric Asia, to the exclusion of India.

All these three countries are working in an axis partnership to contain India.

The central government has been generous in its financial assistance to the seven North-Eastern States. But political attention is totally missing since these states do not have too many members of parliament. The assistance given is not tracked to ensure that it reaches those for whom it is meant.

Northeast is more dangerous than Kashmir

Kashmir is certainly very important with secessionists receiving moral, material and financial assistance from Pakistan. Pakistan’s intelligence agencies have brought in foreign fighters also in Kashmir terrorism. But Kashmir is firmly connected with the rest of India. Even then, Pakistan made an attempt in Kargil in 1999 to cut off the main arterial road to the Valley.

The North-East is in a far more vulnerable strategic and geographic position than the Kashmir Valley. The region is connected to the rest of India by a thin strip of land called the Siliguri corridor or the Siliguri “Chicken neck”.

Bhutan is on one side, Bangladesh on the South, China borders the North-East and North; and Myanmar borders most of the East. China wants to get Tawang to come closer to the Siliguri corridor. A co-ordinated thrust from China and Bangladesh can cut India off from the North-Eastern region. For this to happen, a major anti-India uprising would be needed in the region.

This is not a short term calculation, but a strategic future endeavour. The signs are that the concerned parties are working at it not necessarily for a successful military-politico campaign, but to keep this region destabilized continuously for the moment. This is an ongoing process.

China is quite happy to see its two junior partners do the dirty work quite blatantly in the Indian North-East. But it commands the respect of the North-East militant groups like the ULFA, the NSCN (I/M), the NSCN (K) and others purely because of power projection.

Till recently, the perception among some sections of the Indian defence and security establishment was that the arms being procured by the North-East militants were those left behind after World War-II, the Vietnam war and the Cambodian (Kampuchean) genocide. That view was only partly correct.

Most of the arms, ammunition and communication equipment in recently years come from China’s Yunan province and Chinese arms export company NORINCO which has sales offices in Hong Kong and Thailand.

The Myanmar army surprisingly held up a container full of arms coming from Yunan by the land route a few years ago. That interdiction was apparently made because of the Myanmar military junta’s internal politics. The intelligence Chief, Gen. Khin Nyut, who was very close to China was to be removed by Senior General Than Swe.

A major quantity if arms and explosives from China come by the sea route to Bangladesh’s port city of Chittagong and the greater Chittagong area including Kutubdia.

A huge quantity, eight truck loads, came in 2004 in a ship owned by a BNP-JEI leader, Salauddin Qader Choudhury. The ULFA Commander-in-Chief, Paresh Barua was in Chittagong to receive this consignment. Those arms, accidentally interdicted by a Chittagong police officer, have vanished mysteriously. Those were heydays of the BNP-JEI rule in Bangladesh.

The Chinese deal mainly with the ULFA and the NSCN (I/M) leaders based in Bangladesh. NSCN (I/M)’s Brother Anthony Shimray is a regular visitor to Yunan with a Bangladeshi passport and Chinese visa given by the Chinese Embassy in Dhaka.

ULFA’s Aurobindo Rajkowa is also a regular visitor to Yunan on Bangladeshi passport. The Chinese supply these arms, ammunition and explosives to these two organizations, who in turn sell the same to other North-East outfits. Bangladesh JEI is also one of the recipients.

Top ULFA leaders like Paresh Barua, Rajkhowa and others are well ensconced in Bangladesh and running lucrative businesses. It is blatantly open, but the Bangladesh authorities do not admit it. North-East militant camps in Bangladesh is an old story. There is no way Dhaka will surrender its ace against India easily. The ISI and the DGFI have an agreement of cooperation to sabotage India. China joined the duo in 2005 to procure intelligence on India.

The ground operations in Assam witnessed recently has the stamp of ISI and HUJI (B) combination, with the involvement of immigrant cells and, perhaps, the ULFA. The footprints of this recent terrorism in Assam, especially this October 30 devastating explosions, do not match those of the Indian Mujahideen or its mentor, the SIMI. If the explosive used was plastic explosive, as reports say, then it is an issue of very serious concern.

The terror bombings by the Indian Mujahideen used easily available ingredients. But support from the Indian Mujahideen and the SIMI, at least some links, is a possibility. After all, the HUJI (B), and the LeT of Pakistan have been working with these organizations.

Certain simultaneous political developments in Bangladesh may be seen along with the sudden spurt of violence in Assam. With the support of a section of the army backed caretaker government the HUJI publicly declared it had government6 permission to float a political party, the Islamic Democratic Party (IDP).

The HUJI leaders on the podium who are all veterans of the Afghan Jihad, have trained in camp run by the ISI in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). At the meeting last month to float the IDP some Hindu, Buddhist and Christian supporters were also roped in. This was a ruse by the intelligence elements to give a secular cover to the HUJI, which is under pressure. The Dhaka Police Chief, however, is yet to give a clean chit to the IDP. Very recent reports in the Bangladesh mainstream media, quoting security sources conducting investigations into the activities of the HUJI, have revealed in a brief report, HUJI’s past and ongoing links with Pakistan’s Laskar-e-Toiba (LeT), and the LeT’s Indian operations.

It is well known that the LET along with other Pakistani Islamic terrorist organizations like the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), was set up by Pakistan’s ISI to spread terror in India. The HUJI is also a creation of the ISI. The HUJI has its training camps in the Chittagong and Sylhet areas of Bangladesh, and has close co-operation with the JEI (B).

The ISI has set up cell in Chittagong and Sylhet using Bangladeshi nationals, who are members of the JEI and linked to the HUJI. They are also linked with the Al-Qaeda.

The Islamic Bank of Bangladesh (IBB), which is a JEI establishment, recently opened accounts of the International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO), a Gulf NGO linked to Osama-bin-Laden’s Al Qaeda and the International Islamic Front (IIF), without taking permission from Bangladesh Bank.

IIRO was closed down in Bangladesh in late 2005 following evidence that they were funding Islamic terrorist organizations. Two other banks linked to the JEI (B), the Bank Al Falah and the Social Investment Bank, have also applied for permission from the Bangladesh Bank to open IIRO accounts.

All these put together draw an ominous picture in the underbelly of Assam, given the MULTA’s well established links with the HUJI.

It is now the imperative responsibility for the Assam government, the intelligence agencies and the central government, and all political parties to sit and put all the facts together to come to a consolidated decision. One-upmanship for the elections or brushing things under the carpet for the same reasons will be the making of a future disaster.

The ULFA in Assam has become weak, especially after operation “Rhino” and desertions from its strike forces, the 28th and 27th Battalions. The reason for this was the disillusionment of their cadres and commanders with their leaders living in luxury in Bangladesh, while they suffered from malaria and dysentery in the Assam jungles fighting a cause which is no longer one.

There is a realization among them that their leaders have moved away from their promised path and have become comrades in arms with those who were their original enemies, the Bangladeshi immigrants.

Paresh Barua and company, living in Bangladesh have to pay rent to their landlords. The best they could do was to help with logistics the main culprits, who are not Assamese.

The newly named Islamic Security Force — Indian Mujahideen (ISF — M), which claimed responsibility for the October 30 bombings in Assam, has given out some vital clues with their modus operandi. The Indian intelligence agencies working on the case has already latched on the tell-tale evidence indicating without doubt that the network is trans-border,.

In desperation perhaps, the attacks in Assam this time have targeted the Assamese, making them outright acts of terrorism. On the other side, the Assamese people have become highly agitated against the perpetrating of terror. All these years, they have been held psychologically hostage to a militant movement which went nowhere except to make their lives increasingly miserable.

After all, the Bihari labourers did the basic work which the Assamese did not want to do.

In this chaos and bloodshed, the Assamese government and the Central government along with all other political parties involved in Assam have been presented with a rare opportunity to rectify the situation.

A flower can bloom on a dung hill. But if it is not nurtured, maggots may take over.

The views expressed in the article are of the author’s and not of Sify.com

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