BhaskarRoy
Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests. In this exclusive column for Sify.com, he says, strategic alliances between countries of South Asia would be a disaster for the region, as also for SAARC.
Bangladesh Army Chief Gen. Moeen U Ahmed, who arrived in New Delhi on February 24 for a weeklong visit, will have a lot to discuss with the Indian leaders. He is scheduled to meet the top Indian leaders, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Gen. Moeen’s last scheduled visit to India a year ago was aborted at the last moment. The cancellation or, in polite diplomatic term, postponement of the visit was attributed to important domestic pre-occupation. Soon after, however, he visited Pakistan. Obviously, there were strong powers within the system created by the erstwhile BNP-Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) government that came in the way of the General’s India visit.
The BNP-JEI main coalition of the four-party alliance government in Bangladesh had basically created an anti-India sub-structure in the country. This was not new, having started from as early as Sheikh Mujibur Rehman’s assassination in August 1975. The BNP-JEI government from 2001-2006 only consolidated the process. Even Awami League Chairperson and elder daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman began to believe that without the blessings of Pakistan, and Pakistan’s supporters like China and Saudi Arabia, she would not be able to return to power. The cause of liberation of Bangladesh began to be questioned in a deliberate strategy.
But there were also forces, albeit small, determined to keep Bangladesh’s independence alive. Another saving aspect, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman is still revered by a vast majority as the father of the nation, and his ideals of independence and secularism do still remain at the grassroots.
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Pakistan wanted to avenge 1971. It found forces in Bangladesh who, at least, wanted an alliance with Pakistan. These forces had their own reasons, and the BNP-JEI government was reportedly working towards a confederate relationship with Pakistan. The JEI worked with the Pak occupation army in East Pakistan (Now Bangladesh) against independence. Begum Khaleda Zia, Chairperson of the BNP and widow of BNP founder and the first openly anti-India President of Bangladesh, Gen. Zia-ur-Rehman, is a product of the Pak military cantonment.
Strategic alliances between countries of South Asia would be a disaster for the region, as also for the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC). The SAARC has been sputtering for this reason. Pakistan has been stone-walling a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with India for political and strategic reasons as perceived by Islamabad. Bangladesh followed in Pakistan’s footsteps. Recently, the Director General of Bangladesh Foreign Ministry, Dr. Rashid, told a seminar in Dhaka that an agreement with India will make Bangladesh captive with Indian businessmen. Bangladeshi businessmen at the seminar wanted a protected market. Only the World Bank representative held a contrary view.
Similarly, expansion of SAARC to bring in outside powers to balance or as counter a measure of a SAARC member could only assist in the fragmentation of this regional organisation. Unfortunately, this has already started.
Bangladesh is the main proponent of SAARC and hosted the inaugural SAARC summit in 1984. Dhaka may, therefore, shoulder this onerous responsibility to give the lead to bring the core SAARC members into a truly sharing family. Strategic alliance means co-operation against a third party. Bringing in an outside power is disaster for all concerned.
Gen. Moeen is not uninitiated to all these issues. In fact, if his track record since January 11, 2007, suggests he is acutely aware of the imbalances Bangladesh government got itself trapped into by pursuing both external and internal policies that defied a sane vision for the young country.
Obviously, Gen. Moeen had to step through a minefield to attain the position and power that he wields today. But careful as he is, he does not wield these powers widely. Moeen gradually consolidated his position by promoting himself as a full general. He ensured that the Chiefs of the other two services were similarly promoted. The second level officers received up-gradation. These have been instituted. Those he found as obstructionists were sidelined quietly but without disgrace. A few had to be retired.
Gen. Moeen visit to India now suggests he has been able to significantly impose his position in the country. He apparently enjoys an understanding with the Chief Advisor (Interim Prime Minister) Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed of the Caretaker Government.
The reshuffle of the Advisors (Interim Cabinet Ministers) this January apparently succeeded in easing out some Advisors committed to the BNP-JEI policies. That, of course, does not mean that the Moeen-Fakhruddin team are totally out of the woods. The Aegean Stable of Dhaka would need much more cleansing, if they can really be cleaned at all to satisfaction, which seems unrealistic at the moment. .
In the army backed-caretaker government, the army remains the mainstay. And it can be said that Gen. Moeen in the architect.
Gen. Moeen did not take part in the 1971 liberation war because he was in West Pakistan. Bengali officers and soldiers were disarmed by the West Pakistan army and garrisoned. He served as Bangladesh’s Military Advisor in its High Commission in Islamabad, and is a course mate of senior Pakistani Generals. But the perception that he is a Pak acolyte apparently proved incorrect. Subsequent developments suggest Moeen is pursuing a policy in Bangladesh’s national interest — that is, balance and co-operation without machinations.
A nation’s foreign policy is generally dictated by internal political balance and ideological disposition. In Bangladesh, another dimension has been added in recent years. What kind of a political dispensation can allow unbridled corruption among politicians, businessmen, bureaucrats and military officers? The army-backed caretaker government, or at least elements among it, is trying to break this vicious nexus. But they also have their drawbacks in legal acumen and political prejudices.
A challenge taken up by the army-backed caretaker government is to send the leaders of the two main political parties, Begum Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina, into political oblivion. One can hardly deny the fact both these leaders presided over the two most corrupt governments in the country. The Khaleda Zia led government from 2001-2006 not only ruined the country financially, but directly or indirectly encouraged Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism for political interests.
The caretaker powers should have realised that these two women carry the nationalist halo of the respective husband and father. They could have been left alone and restricted through rooting out their corruption instruments. This would have been a more doable task.
But the effort to root out corruption appears to have got entangled in a mess. The anti-corruption net was cast too wide, to even wipe out small businesses. The authorities should have realised that no country is, or can be, totally free of corruption.
Also, too many politicians are languishing in custody with charges filed against them but no conviction in sight. This is now giving the authorities a bad name including of inefficiency, personal vendetta and inability to rise above embedded forces backing their corrupt mentors.
The army-backed government is also being charged with economic inefficiency. According to official figures, foreign and domestic investment proposals dipped 55 per cent between January and November 2007, compared to the previous corresponding period. The reason apparently was instability in the country, but the authorities have to take the blame. Worst has been rise in inflation, especially food prices. This has severely affected the common man, and the crux lies here.
Significantly, the Bangladesh chapter of “Transparency International” has also reported that corruption has not declined, raising serious questions about the efforts taken so far to weed it out.
The issue of terrorism directly affects both Bangladesh and India. The army-backed caretaker government has made some progress, but not enough. They succeeded in executing top six leaders of the Jamat-ul-Islam, Bangladesh (JMB). But the organisation has not been eliminated. Arrests are being made periodically, but conviction delayed.
Most importantly, they have collected hard evidence on BNP ex-Ministers, MPs and leaders involved with the JMB. Although some of them are in custody, trials continue to either drag or are postponed. Obviously, there are reasons for this state of affairs.
The most high profile case of terrorism in the country, the assassination attempt on Sheikh Hasina on August 21, 2004 is in court. The main culprit, Mufti Hannan, Commander of the Harkat-ul-Jihad Al-Islami, Bangladesh or HUJI (BD) is in custody. Hannan’s confessions and other evidence clearly established BNP’s conspiracy in the attack on Hasina’s life. This may be the real reason why this case is not moving towards a conclusion.
Read all Bhaskar Roy columns here
Gen. Moeen would be well advised to keep in consideration the rise in Islamic terrorism in Bangladesh, especially of Pakistan’s ISI backed terrorist organizations. The HUJI is of the special concern to India. The majority of terrorist incidents in India had a HUJI (BD) connection, and New Delhi is yet to see any serious attempts by the Bangladeshi government to address these problems.
A former senior Bangladesh army officer has recently said that the HUJI (BD) was still active in the country, and their bases in the Chittagong Hill Tract area and Cox’s Bazar are functioning.
Further, there are issues related to camps or sanctuaries of Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs) in Bangladesh territory. The Chairman of the ULFA, Anup Chetia, remains in a Bangladesh jail under a cosy arrangement between the country’s intelligence agencies and the ULFA. This has prevented Chetia’s extradition to India. The ULFA Central Command is located in Dhaka, the ULFA Commander-in-Chief lives in Dhaka, and the organization runs several business enterprises in Bangladesh.
The ISI is actively involved with the ULFA in Bangladesh. A recent confession by a captured ULFA leader claimed an ISI-ULFA plan to hijack an Indian aircraft like the hijack of IC-814 from Nepal in 2000. These are unfriendly, if not outright hostile acts against India. But these can be resolved by a friendly government in Dhaka.
Gen. Moeen should be prepared to answer some of these questions.
India has demonstrated its friendship with Bangladesh, especially in the aftermath of the Sidr cyclone. Some sections, especially the JEI and sections of the BNP, tried to discredit India’s assistance in various ways. But this did not work.
Interestingly, the people in sub-continental countries around India are slowly beginning to realise that India is not a threat but a stable influence and presence. This has happened most recently in Pakistan, where the people refused to bite President Musharraf’s anti-India campaign on the eve of the elections.
There is a lot to be done in the Indo-Bangladesh relations. It is for Dhaka to grab the opportunity. Gen. Moeen U. Ahmed should return from India as an encouraged leader of his country.
The views expressed in the article are the author’s and not of Sify.com.
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