bhaskar_roy.jpg
Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests.
No one in Bangladesh and outside could have predicted that the Grand Old Party of the country, the Awami League (AL), would sweep the elections to the 9th Parliament on December 29, 2008.
But it was not an accident either, though certain new factors played an important role. It was mainly the people who silently created an electoral, democratic revolution.
Victory has many fathers. But Sk. Hasina, who is now Prime Minister for a second time, was restrained in her post election speeches. She has called for stable politics and eschewed retribution. This has had a salutary effect on the main opposition, the BNP — Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) combine. The AL’s approach including warning their own cadres of severe action if they indulged in violence against the opposition, took the wind out of the BNP’s sail.
The Awami League has won 231 seats out of the 299 up for contention, a two-third majority on its own, taking the country back to the 1970 election in undivided Pakistan. The denial of victory to Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and the Awami League by the rulers in Islamabad snapped the last connection between the two wings of Pakistan. Bangladesh was born on December 16, 1971 after great sacrifices by the people. It is only fitting that after 37 years, another December election brought back the same party with a definitive mandate.
Cracks in the Bangla Army
Having said that, the Awami League and their alliance partners cannot afford to be complacent. They must always keep in view the fact that the total votes polled by the opposition was only 6 per cent less than theirs.
Sheikh Hasina and Awami League leaders and supporters must now think about the following very deeply and dispassionately: Did the League really win an overwhelming victory, or did the BNP-JEI combine defeat themselves in the judgment of the people? Recognizing the truth would help the Awami League deliver on its destiny. The people will be closely watching ..
It is also important to note that after 37 years, the people decided to intervene in the politics of the country once again. The rejection of the BNP-JEI rule by the people must be seen in the context of their rule from 2001-2006, and Islamabad’s Mayhem in 1971 in East Pakistan, now Bangladesh.
Leaving aside the fact that the BNP-JEI did not have a marauding army at their command, there were elements of everything else. Unbridled corruption, total high-handiness, no accountability, promoting Islamic terrorism for politics, and political assassination, which had became a hallmark of Pakistan’s surrogates in Bangladesh from 1975 to 1978.
What Dhaka needs to learn
Between 2001 and 2005, at least three attempts were made on the life of Sheikh Hasina. The August 21, 2004 attack left her severely injured and killed several League leaders including Presidium member Ms. Ivy Rehman. The British High Commissioner to Bangladesh Anwar Hossain was injured in another grenade attack in 2004. It is now established these acts were perpetrated by the Harkat-ul-Jihad Al-Islami (HUJI) Bangladesh at the instance of BNP leaders. The HUJI is a creation of Pakistan’s ISI and comprises mainly those who were trained in Pakistani camps and fought in Afghanistan, Kashmir, Chechnya and elsewhere.
The Jamatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) was another Islamic terrorist organization espoused by some BNP leaders for similar purposes. Khaleda Zia, as Prime Minister, denied any knowledge of this organization until US President George W. Bush gave a warning in February, 2006 when on a visit to India.
The involvement of a government in terrorism is a very serious matter. There are credible reports indicating that some Al Qaeda terrorists visited the Chittagong Hill Tracts areas of Bangladesh in 2006 and stayed in facilities of the JEI. But due to the fast changing scenario and international attention on Bangladesh, the Al Qaeda links could not grow. Now, the Gulf NGOs who traditionally fund the Al Qaeda and its international operations have reopened operations through the Bangladesh Bank and the Islamic Bank of Bangladesh, according to Bangladesh media reports which have not been denied by either of these two banks.
Bangladesh newspapers recently also reported that the JMB was reorganizing and growing quickly. The execution of its top six leaders in 2006 does not appear to have done much damage to the outfit, which now plans to revive its strategy to assassinate Sheikh Hasina. Obviously. there are powerful people within the system or with enough political influence to help the JMB not only survive but revive quickly. Finances are important for such a revival. Who is providing the money and protection? The JMB, though indigenous to Bangladesh, are also products of Pakistani camps and the Afghan jihad.
Dhaka burns over political football
One may ask how Gulf-based NGOs like the Al Harmain Trust and Revival of Islamic Heritage Society (RIHS) are making a surreptitious return to the country, despite being banned. Obviously, some powerful people are facilitating them. The Islamic Development Bank is run by the JEI, and was formed with the help of Saudi Arabia after Sheikh Mujib’s assassination. Investigations, including with the assistance of the American agencies, revealed this bank was involved in illegal money transactions. But no action was taken against it.
It will be up to Prime Minister Hasina to decide how to deal with the religious and political extremists. But Western observers, especially from the European Union (EU), cannot afford to be complacent just because the the JEI could win only two seats in the Parliamentary elections. The defeat of the JEI top leaders, like its Amir Motiur Rahman Nizam, General Secretary Mujadid, ideologue Dilwar Hossain Saidee and others has been a setback for the party, but its basic foundation has not been damaged.
Bangladesh: The Caretaker Strikes
The JEI leaders have been quite clear that in the short term, winning seats were not their concern. Their strategy is to rise from the grass-roots levels like Madrassas, technical education centers, primary health care, social support and their own Islamic industries and business. It is a self-supporting venture across the country. Alongside, they have a dedicated and highly disciplined students/youth wing, the Islamic Chaatra Shibir (ICS), which sponsors bright candidates for higher education and white collared influential jobs — lawyers, doctors, judges, professors and teachers, journalists, bureaucrats and soldiers. They have already made significant entry in all these areas.
But the critical aspect of the JEI’s Islamic movement, which maintains close links with Pakistan’s security and right wing religious establishment as well as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE, is the Shura or Central committee. This is, what the Chinese call, the “Serpent’s head”. Can the serpent’s head be crushed to give Bangladesh peace?
Dear Bangla Jamaat, don't distort Islam!
The voting pattern of the December 29 polls needs to be examined from another angle as well. As per available statistics in the Bangladesh media there was unprecedented turn out of women and first time voters i.e. women and youth that may have helped form the tide against the BNP-JEI 4-party alliance. This illustrates two things. One, Bangladeshi women are unwilling to conform to religious conservatism. Two, the youth have emerged with a new liberal and educated mindset, ready to fight regressive politics and corruption.
If Bangladesh has to return to its ideals, the Awami League will have to exorcise the ghosts of 1971 and 1975. History will have to be told boldly and written clearly and honestly. If needed, some so-called Liberation heroes who doctored the history of liberation and quietly assisted in the assassination of “Banga Bandhu” may have to be tried posthumously.
A book that burns
The basic issues in the politics of Bangladesh are the long-pending trials of the “war criminals” and the trial of those who killed Sk. Mujibur Rahman and his family and the top leaders of the Awami League in jail. The election manifesto of the Awami League, approved by Hasina, had promised to deliver on both these issues and more. The people have now given the mandate to do so.
The composition of Hasina’s initial Cabinet demonstrates two things. First, 21 of the 31 ministers are young and first time ministers. Second,. all 31 are corruption free. This would certainly encourage the common people, though some views within the party circle and outside supporters feel the seniors should not have been brushed aside in one sweep. Of course, many of them had worked to replace Hasina, though they argue they were preparing for an alternative if she was politically disfranchised by the caretaker government for which there was no dearth of effort.
Read all Bhaskar Roy columns here
There is also an emphasis among the Ministers on recognition of the war of liberation, and some martyrs of November, 1975 who were ignored till now. The inclusion of AVM (Retd.) Khandakar as a Cabinet Minister and appoint of the sons of late wartime President Sayed Nazrul Islam and Prime Minister Tajuddin Ahmed finally suggests that the book of soul cleansing is being re-opened. Either the poisonous weeds are destroyed, or they will destroy the country.
The success or failure of great leaders depends upon the advisors he or she chooses. It is hoped Sheikh Hasina will chose wisely.
More hard-hitting columns | For more instant news updates
The views expressed in the article are of the author’s and not of Sify.com.
| Slide Shows | Columns | Calendar
Share | 
Print | Rate 
