Questions for the Nepal Maoists

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Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests.

When External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee lands at the Kathmandu airport on November 24, he would be ready for a situation in Nepal very different from the earlier expectations of the Indian government.

In less than one hundred days of leading the coalition government, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists) has tried to set the country on a path of confrontation with India. Needling India with the backing of another powerful neighbour has become a serious strategic occupation of the Maoists leaders and their Ministers in the government. But some of the issues being raised by the Maoist leaders have the potential to seriously impact Nepal's bilateral relations with India.

Also Read: Is India Nepal’s enemy?

Maoist chief and Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also know as Prachanda, appears to be playing a game of sophistry — keeping everyone guessing, saying different things at different places and events.

On the eve of his visit to New Delhi last week for the BIMSTEC meeting, Prachanda told the vernacular weekly Ghatana Ra Bichar that he was grateful for the Indian government’s continued support for Nepal’s uprising and peace process, adding Nepal looked for further Indian support as the process was yet to reach a logical conclusion.

Prachanda was obviously well aware that the Indian leaders would be seeking some clarifications when he met them in New Delhi. He, however, ducked the Indian media despite having received support from segments of it.

Indian intelligence agencies apparently had some questions about the Nepal Maoists and their links with the Indian Maoists. There was hard evidence of these links, but Prachanda and his close confidant Baburam Bhattarai assured all concerned they were not working with their Indian counterparts any longer. In fact, the Indian Maoists had openly criticised them for joining the bourgeois political parties.

Whether there is a genuine departure of the Nepal Maoists from the path of the Indian Maoists is difficult to confirm, but such relations are usually not discarded totally.

The left revolution that the CPN (M) is trying to impose in Nepal is certainly not aimed at restricting it within the border of the country. This can go beyond India to Bangladesh, where a low level underground ultra-left movement exists close to the Indian borders of West Bengal.

In yet another theatre, relations between the Nepal Maoists and the Chinese government and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) were projected as adversarial publicity during the early revolutionary period. The Chinese maintained that they had no relationship with the Maoists, and denounced the latter for having adopted the name “Maoists.” The Chinese maintained very close relations with King Gyanendra and the Palace forces, especially since the year 2002 when Gyanendra dismissed political governance.

Also Read: China’s Nepal card

Even when India and other countries stopped arms transfer to the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) to prevent excessive use of arms against the protesting political parties including the Maoists, China continued to arm the Royal Nepal Army.

It was, therefore, intriguing that as soon as the Maoists emerged as the most powerful political party in Nepal, the veil lifted to reveal a very close political and ideological relationship between the CPN (M), the CCP and the Chinese government.

The real story is now beginning to emerge, amidst reports that the Chinese had tried to broker a deal between King Gyanendra and the Maoists. According to Nepali Congress (NC) President and former Prime Minister, G P Koirala, Prachanda had met Gyanendra, but it is still not clear what occurred in the meeting.

A lot of gaps continue to exist in the information since then about the intricate dealings between three parties — the Chinese, the Maoists and King Gyanendra. But the Chinese have left behind some footprints. It is, therefore, time to re-examine reports in 2003-2004 about clandestine Chinese arms supply to the Maoists and covert meetings between some Maoists leaders and the Chinese Ambassador in a Kathmandu safe house.

Also Read: The challenges ahead for Nepal

Obviously, the Nepal Maoists and the Chinese agreed in private to disagree in public.

It is, therefore, pertinent to examine why in the last few months the Chinese Ambassador in Nepal, visiting Chinese government and CCP officials and connected experts have been repeatedly assuring Nepal that China will protect Nepal’s territorial integrity.

To which country are the Chinese pointing fingers at? A veteran Chinese scholar linked with the government, Wang Hongwei, openly said a couple of months ago that China knew India was planning to “Sikkimise” Nepal, but “China would not allow it.”

These are not idle statements made on Nepal’s soil.

In parallel, the Maoist leaders are raising territorial claims on India. Senior Maoist leader Mohan Kiran Vaidya recently demanded abrogation of the 1815 Sugauli Treaty between the British East India Company and the Nepali Monarchy which gave India large tracts of Nepali territory acquired by Nepal in battles. The argument is basically flawed as it admits the territories acquired by the Nepali King Prithvi Narayan Shah, was by force.

Many other issues are also being brought up. The tenor of the territorial claims being raised now appears to have very loud influence of another country’s territorial policies, which go as far back as the 14th country, to lay claim on others' territory with convoluted and manufactured evidence.

Also Read: Nepal: A few hard truths

The internal politics being pushed by the Maoists in Nepal cannot be separated from the foreign policy they are pursuing. The ultimate goal is to institute one-party state: the CPN(M), with satellite emasculated parties similar to the Chinese model.

Nepali Defence Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal of the CPN(M) is trying to mould the country’s defence establishment on the Chinese model. He has not hidden this desire nor the Chinese offer of assistance to this project. These moves will have a profound effect on the peace and stability of South Asia.

When Pranab Mukherjee discusses issues with the Nepali leaders in Kathmandu, these are some questions that should obviously be on the table.

The views expressed in the article are the author’s and not of Sify.com

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