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Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests.
The September 20 terrorist attack that literally blew apart Islamabad’s American landmark, the Marriot Hotel, is steeped in obscurantist ideology and ISI-Army complex machinations to further a cause that is already dead.
Marriott Hotel suicide blast: Top militant arrested
Why has the US, which reposed so much trust in Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s ability to effectively combat terrorism for so many years, suddenly raised the scale and level of unilateral actions in Pakistan’s troubled tribal provinces soon after the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led democratic coalition government came to power in the February 18 elections? It is clear that Washington was reluctant to see Musharraf go, and would have preferred him on the President’s chair for as long as possible.
Musharraf was clearly lying to everybody, mostly to the Americans on one side and the religious extremists on the other. Events since the kidnap and murder of journalist Daniel Pearl in Karachi in 2002 to the situation today bear testimony to the fact that Musharraf has single handedly brought the country to this difficult pass.
Pak arrests 2 suspects in the Marriott hotel bombing
During his visit to Washington in 2002, he lied to the American media that Pearl was alive and would be rescued soon when he already knew that Pearl was dead. The Taliban, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Al-Qaeda did not secure their biggest haven in the country’s North-West overnight after the elected government came to power in Islamabad. It would have taken the militants or terrorists, whatever one may call them, about two years to ensconce and entrench themselves in the area — the local people had to be convinced and the tribal chiefs won over.
During all this, Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI and the army looked away. It is doubtful that the US intelligence agencies did not know anything about the developments. But they allowed Musharraf to deal with it.
Footage of suicide attack on Pak hotel released
It was only after the February elections that the US government and intelligence agencies openly exhibited a tearing hurry to confront the militants with some real demonstration of force. Was physical entry of US forces into Pakistani soil necessary, given that some progress was being recorded by attacks from US drones and other air power from across the border in Afghanistan? If it was a threat to force the new Pakistani government and the Pakistani army to root out militancy, the policy was wrong. It disturbed the proverbial hornet’s nest.
This is the first time in the history of the two countries that the US overtly violated Pakistan’s sovereign territory and Pakistani troops resorted to firing at US helicopters and aircraft. The Pakistani military spokesman told media persons that they have orders to shoot at US aircraft violating Pakistan air space. This prompted the US to warn that if these firings do not stop, they will bring in B-52 bombers to blow apart the Taliban and Al-Qaeda hideouts. Are the two trying to stare each other down? This would be really bad news for the region.
Marriott blast: Mystery of US Marines' steel boxes being probed
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the ISI have had close relationship starting from the days of the Afghan jihad. The Americans now say that the ISI has betrayed them. When Pakistan Prime Minister Yusuf Reza Gillani visited Washington last month, dossiers of proof were laid out to him with evidence that the ISI was leaking intelligence shared with them to the Taliban; there were ISI finger prints on an abortive attempt on Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s life earlier this year; and now it has been revealed that Pakistan Army Chief General Asfaq Kayani was in the know of the ISI’s role in the bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul.
Kayani was the ISI chief before he took over as Army Chief with US blessings and as Musharraf’s candidate last year. The ISI has suddenly come under US pressure. Washington is keen that the agency is revamped, and undesirable elements strained out. This is easier said than done. Prime Minister Gilani tried to cut down the ISI but General Kayani put his foot down. This explains where the strength lies not only on security inside the country, but security perceptions of external influences. In Pakistan, the army retains the final say.
Stable Pakistan not in India’s interest
It is well known that the ISI maintains close relations with the Taliban and, in some manner, with the Al-Qaeda. It is, therefore, difficult to understand how big trucks full of explosives could roll through the streets of Islamabad undetected and target the Marriot. Pakistani military installations like an ammunition depot and medical officers of the army have been attacked in recent incidents. The fighting arm of the army has been left alone. Does this say something?
The ISI continues to nurture terrorist organizations like the Laskhar-e-Toiba, the Jaish-e-Mohammad and others which are primarily India centric. In the India-Pakistan context, a leading Pakistani newspaper recently commented that while Musharraf had assured that these terrorist organizations would be abolished, he only asked them to lie low. The ISI continues to engineer terrorist incidents in India, now more through some disturbed Indian Muslim youths who harbour a strong sense of alienation for different reasons.
Why Kashmir has failed Pakistan
While visiting a forward post along the Line of Control (LoC) with India in Kashmir last week, Kayani declared support to the Kashmiri movement inside India, and also warned that the army will not allow violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty. In a manner, Kyani was trying to connect US and Indian interests against Pakistan.
Interestingly, in an interview with the state controlled Pakistan Television (PTV) on September 17, Lt.Gen. (Retd) Aiyaz Ahmed claimed that he had personal knowledge that the Pakistani Taliban leaders like Baitullah Masud, head of the TTP, and Maulana Fazlullah of Swat, were actually Indians trained by the Indian agency R&AW and the CIA to destabilize Pakistan. Among such other bizarre claims, Aiyaz Ahmed said Fazlullah was activated to cut the Pakistan-China land route over the Karakoram highway.
One does not know whether China will endorse Aiyaz Ahmed’s claim. But the importance of this interview lies in two segments. One, the interview was in Urdu, meant for the vast number of common people who are prone to swallow disturbing stories about India. Two, it is unlikely that Pakistan’s Information Minister, Ms Sherry Reheman would have cleared such a programme. From other PTV programmes on India, it is clear that the television station is virtually controlled by the ISI.
China has been closely watching the development in Pakistan and keeping its lines open. The only place a pressured Pakistan, especially its armed forces, can get support against the US and India is from China. Beijing will welcome this development. But it must also calculate that the developments come with a baggage: a sudden and emphatic rise of Islamic extremism that is unlikely to spare China’s restive Muslim region of Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous region bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Is Pakistan's army running scared?
In his interview to PTV, Lt.Gen. (Retd) Aiyaz Ahmed deliberately gave out another indicator. He said he considered the Taliban in Afghanistan to be freedom fighters, fighting invaders, whether the US or NATO forces. The statement obviously extends to President Hamid Karzai, well known to be US-backed.
There is also an obvious effort on the part of Pakistan army and the ISI to open an India-threat front. It manifests in two ways — one, firing across the LoC by the Pakistan army, violating the 2003 agreement. The other, stepped up infiltration of ISI trained insurgents into Kashmir under covering fire by the Pakistan army.
There appears to be evidence to suggest that a desperate attempt is being made by the Pak army to oust the Western forces and the Karzai government in quest of its fleeting star -- acquiring strategic depth in Afghanistan. This can only exacerbate war in Afghanistan with undesirable impact on Pakistan itself.
A democratic Pakistan is not a bad idea - Sify.com
The situation in Pakistan is fluid and unstable. Anything could happen with disastrous consequences for the region. Interested parties must desist from fishing in troubled waters, since Pakistan appears to be on a short fuse. India will be directly affected if Pakistan plunges into turmoil.
In favour of India is, however, a growing opinion in Pakistan’s civil society that improvement of bilateral relation is the preferable way to maintain stability. New Delhi must leverage the feeling of this society which includes the business class and the intelligentsia, adequately. But a high alert must also be maintained. A Pakistan which reverts to military rule will have little inclination for bonhomie with India. This is a rare opportunity which India must not miss.
The views expressed in the article are the author’s and not of Sify.com.
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