N-deal will boost self-reliance

Anil_Athale

Colonel (retd) Dr Anil Athale is a Chhatrapati Shivaji Chair Fellow of the United Services Institute and co-ordinator of INPAD, a Pune based think-tank. He is also the author of ‘Nuclear Menace: the Satyagraha Approach’ (Pub 1997).

The entry of India into a group of ‘recognised’ nuclear weapons armed countries, de facto though not de jure, is an event of historic significance.

Ever since the disaster of the 1942 Quit India Movement that failed to make a dent on Allied war efforts, India forever has been missing the high tide of history. It is thanks to Dr. Manmohan Singh as the PM we have broken a historical jinx. A lesser man than him would have thrown in the towel given that not just Opposition, but even his own party stalwarts went against him. But unlike them, Singh looked 20 years ahead, and not to the next election.

India has paid a very heavy price for the ‘men of straw’ (Churchill’s phrase to describe Indian politicians) at the helm of affairs. The 1942 fiasco led directly to division of India and some such similar disaster would have been awaiting us had we listened to the nay sayers and missed this historic moment.

As someone who campaigned hard in the early 1990s for nuclear tests including the test of Thermo nuclear weapons (the real deterrent), the news of the nuclear trade waiver by the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group), earlier known as the London Club, came as a vindication. For let there be no mistake, without the 1998 Shakti or Pokhran II tests, there would have been no nuclear deal.

Unfortunately the ruling party is making the same mistake as the BJP did in 1998- of trying to hog all the credit.

Like in 1998, instead of welcoming a truly historic moment and national achievement, the argumentative Indians are nitpicking. One can well understand the carping by the sour faced spokespersons of the Left, since taking a cue from their Fatherland, China, they are unhappy. Being true Chinese patriots, one does not expect anything else from these worthies.

Their opposition is based primarily on their anti-national mentality. It would not be an exaggeration to say that as a thumb rule whenever the Left opposes anything we must support it since it is bound to be in national interest. Of late Mamata Bannerji seems to have been afflicted with this Bengal virus.

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The opposition by the BJP, which initiated the process of Indo-US strategic partnership, is a sign of total bankruptcy of ideas and reverting to the old ‘Opposition’ mould, where a party with no hope to ever come to power opposed everything that the government of the day did.

The super patriots of the Sangh Pariwar, who have a very modest understanding of the modern world, have picked up a cry of ‘threat to self reliance’ and fear the flood of imported reactors and what it will do to indigenous technological development. The BJP, of course, has a mantra of ‘threat to nuclear testing’ that they keep repeating mindlessly.

It is time to set the record straight.

The NSG waiver had all the elements of high drama, with a wily villain (China) working behind the scenes and six assorted European countries (New Zealand is as European and White as the sheep there) trying to stall the deal.

N-deal serves the US better

These countries were opposed to Indo-US nuclear deal, which essentially gets India on board to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons to unstable countries.

If they had succeeded (which I doubted), then all that would have happened was that India would have been free to do as it pleases in terms of both nuclear weapons and nuclear technology. While all these years we have never proliferated, it may not last if India is pushed to the wall.

But most importantly, unless they want to force India to remain at an underdeveloped stage, for which these respective countries, not just singly, but even collectively, did not have the economic, military or political muscle, then increased energy use and production is inevitable in India. In the absence of nuclear power, this would be the carbon belching thermal power. A nuclear war may or may not take place, but Global warming is taking place now. So the choice before world is: Nuclear Deal or more green-house gases?

Here are some facts which perhaps these naysaying nations are unaware of:

Indian research in the nuclear field started before independence at the Tata Institute of fundamental research.

An Indian reprocessing facility was established in 1963-64, many years before the NSG or its earlier avatar, the London Club, came into existence.

And finally, the father of this organisation, Dr. Henry Kissinger, in now in favour of this deal.

Satyen Bose, after whom the sub atomic particle Boson is named, was regarded as highly as Einstein. He did not get the Nobel Prize due to racism. Neither did Gandhi. Does that feeling still survive, one wonders?

The opposition by the six countries like Switzerland, Austria, Ireland, New Zealand et al was based on their own domestic politics of influence of environmental ‘extremism’, sort of branches of our own special Medha Patkar variety. China exploited them, and was confident that the measure would fall through.

But as the US pressured these small and vulnerable countries and they succumbed, China came out in the open and began to advocate the case of a rogue nation like Pakistan. It was only a strong reminder by the American President about China’s own vulnerabilities and dubious past proliferation activities that finally brought them to heel.

All the six opponents of the waiver are countries that have aging populations, inefficient labour and stagnant economies. They need India much more than India needs them. These facts must have been put across by our diplomats.

But, unfortunately, at times such messages may get lost in the ‘noise’ of diplomatic niceties, hence this blunt reminder to the six dwarfs to behave. India should neither forget nor forgive the last ditch efforts by the six naysayers and take appropriate diplomatic and economic measures to get them to behave themselves in future.

How the deal will help self-reliance

When the London Club was started in 1978 in response to the Indian nuclear test of May 1974, initially an attempt was made to stop Indian nuclear development by restricting the supply of fuel. The US went back on the Tarapur deal. But as India overcame this, the focus then shifted to Heavy Water, a key ingredient in Indian nuclear programme.

The London Club soon became the Nuclear Suppliers Group, with its membership–and its ambit of restrictions–expanded. The technology restrictions became more and more comprehensive.

When the West, led by the US, realised that it had failed to stop the Indian nuclear programme, it shifted the attention to delivery of these weapons. Thus was born the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Not satisfied with this, a new cartel under the Wassenaar Arrangement on Export Controls for Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and Technologies listed literally thousands of ‘dual use’ technologies that are to be denied to countries like India, that are non-signatories to the NPT.

The NSG guidelines went even further: Any company or research institute dealing with the Indian nuclear research or space programme was blacklisted. Indian scientists attending perfectly harmless a science conference in the US were deported by the Americans, as if they were criminals or spies. Even institutes like the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore was put on a blacklist and all scientific contact with them terminated.

Private companies that worked on Indian space and nuclear programme were similarly penalised. Godrej (for making cryogenic engines), Larsen & Toubro, Kirloskars and the Walchand Group are some of the brave industries which continued working on these programmes of national importance despite such sanctions. But many really big Indian corporate houses (who do not shy away from wrapping themselves in national flag when in difficulty) studiously kept away from space and nuclear programme. The companies which did help did so despite suffering financially, since even their other non-strategic businesses were affected.

The NSG waiver ends this Terror Raj of blacklisting of companies. It is to be expected that the bigger corporates will now enter the field of developing space and nuclear technology. Indians have already shown that we are second to none when it comes to innovation. Ending the isolation of our scientific establishments and their personnel is bound to have a similarly beneficial effect.

Indian indigenous technology development will get a tremendous boost. Many of the already developed technologies will be available to us (though not the top of the shelf ones) that will help us build on that foundation and create our own high tech industry.

The Chinese industrial miracle is founded on the generous flow of technology and capital from the US beginning 1980s. China is well aware of that. What the ending of technology Apartheid for India will mean is that we will now be on the same footing as China in technology trade. India has far superior technical manpower and entrepreneurship, which will not only help us catch up with China but even surpass it.

We have been finally freed from ‘re-inventing the wheel’ activity in field of technological research.

A word about the ambiguous language as concerns the nuclear testing by India. As Prof Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Inst said in a television programme, if tomorrow China or Pakistan conducts a test or even the US resumes testing, then India will be fully justified in conducting its own tests in interest of national security. It is unlikely that in such an event the NSG would impose any sanctions on India.

It seems the main Opposition BJP was so blinded by the possibility of a chance of the government falling and it being in a position to exploit the ‘price rise’ to reap electoral harvest, that it totally ignored the long term national interest and opposed the deal on flimsy grounds. Its opposition to the nuclear deal is only a shade better than that of the left, and robs it of its sheen of a party that roots for a strong India.

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