Jeffrey
Lewis is Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative
at the New America Foundation. Dr. Lewis is the author of Minimum Means of Reprisal:
China’s Search for Security in the Nuclear Age (MIT Press, 2007). Dr.
Lewis is a research affiliate with the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard
University and a member of the Editorial Advisory Board of the Bulletin of the
Atomic Scientists. Dr. Lewis also founded and maintains the leading blog on
nuclear arms control and nonproliferation, ArmsControlWonk.com. In this article,
he wonders whether the ‘US-India nuclear deal is a license for India to
conduct another round of nuclear tests, the Hyde Act be damned.’
A colleague of mine notes that Indian PM Manmohan Singh,
in his address to the conference Towards
a World Free of Nuclear Weapons, omitted any mention of India’s
voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing. Here is the key paragraph:
India
is fully aware of its responsibilities as a nuclear weapon state. We have a
declared doctrine of no first-use that is based on credible minimum deterrence.
We have in place strict controls on export of nuclear and fissile related materials
and technology. India has no intention to engage in an arms race with anyone.
Above all, India is fully committed to nuclear disarmament that is global, universal
and non-discriminatory in nature.
The omission is important — though George Perkovich (vice president
for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a leading
expert on India's nuclear program) and I both
missed it at the moment.
Once one notices the absence of any reference to a test moratorium, though,
it is quite striking. Compare Singh’s recent statement with another from
2005:
|
|
| India is fully aware of its
responsibilities as a nuclear weapon state. We have a declared doctrine
of no first-use that is based on credible minimum deterrence. We have
in place strict controls on export of nuclear and fissile related materials
and technology. India has no intention to engage in an arms race with
anyone. Above all, India is fully committed to nuclear disarmament that
is global, universal and non-discriminatory in nature. |
There is today growing recognition
of India as a responsible nuclear power. We remain committed to our unilateral
moratorium on testing, and our policy of no-first use. We reaffirm our
willingness to work with the international community to prevent the proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction, and to work towards the ultimate goal
of universal nuclear disarmament. |
The wording is almost identical — so much so that I can’t
believe the failure to mention the test moratorium was an accident. It was
quite on purpose.
Also read: Is the nuke noose a retribution for the PM? | N-deal:
Killing India with kindness
Sing has mentioned the moratorium on at least two other occasions
(once in 2005
and again in 2006),
as well as in the July 18 2005 statement in which Singh agreed that India
would “assume the same responsibilities and practices … as other
leading countries with advanced nuclear technology” including “continuing
India’s unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing.” There is that
word — “responsible” — again, defined in part by India’s
moratorium.
Which leads me to ask, why is Singh suddenly leaving his options
open to drop the moratorium and resume testing?
One possibility is suggested by the fact that the yield of India’s
May 1998 event is inconsistent with the claim that India successfully detonated
a thermonuclear device among the five bombs said to have gone boom. Certain
Indian scientists have argued that India needs to resume testing in order
to master that particular technology. (For more on the failed May 1998 test
and possible pressures for a resumption of Indian testing, see: The
Bomb, Dmitry. The Hydrogen Bomb, April 10, 2005).
Special:
Indo-US nuclear deal |
Full coverage
Maybe Singh is under some pressure on that front.
I have a sneaking suspicion that the US-India nuclear deal is
a license for India to conduct another round of nuclear tests, the Hyde Act
be damned.
Article and image reprinted with permission from armscontrolwonk.com.
Any unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
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