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India in 2002!
by K Gopalakrishnan
Tuesday, 28 January , 2003, 00:00
Last Updated: Tuesday, 15 July , 2003, 13:29
The bulls will return to the markets, somewhat reluctantly, in May 2002. Till then the bears will be playing footsie with the Sensex. If you are planning to invest, wait till they retreat. The year 2002 is not expected to be spectacular for software stocks. But they will look a lot healthier than they did last year. The industry’s fortune, as a whole, will start looking up from the middle of this year. (TRUE)

The services and manufacturing sectors are expected to bounce back in August (TRUE) when the Sensex could go even beyond the 4,000-mark. Take risks but keep off wild speculation. Don’t get carried away by the charge of the bulls in the market.

This is a year when the entrepreneurship bug will bite the middle class. You will see lots of ordinary people mustering courage to set up small-scale industries.

The sector to watch out for is higher education where Indians will excel at the international level. The education sector will be truly transformed in September. But there will be no shortage of controversies either as the government goes ahead with revising the country’s history textbooks.

Coffee growers will taste success this year. Tea prices will go up rather sharply till August. Keeping tea-company will be cotton, sugar and sesame oil.

Pharma sector’s dream run will continue till August 15. By then the fortunes of the banking and financial sectors will truly improve. Retailers will be laughing all the way to the bank this year and will introduce brave, new concepts along the way. So will admen. The automotive industry is well set to drive into profits from the second half of 2002. (TRUE)

Investments in the iron, steel and leather sectors are likely to yield good returns from October. The FMCG sector is also worth a second look. But white goods are expected to become dearer.

The picture is not so bright for the film industry till July. A lot of movies are expected to flop at the box-office. (TRUE) Bollywood in particular will make and distribute films differently in the second part of the year. The news for the media is not so good: a couple of high-profile TV channels are expected to switch off for good.

Relations with our neighbours will improve and India’s prestige and name will keep growing in the eyes of the international community. Pakistan on the other hand will limp from one mistake to another. Passions will run high on the borders throughout the year and minor skirmishes cannot be ruled out. The Vajpayee-government will survive through all these. Jayalalitha will have to wait for some more time before tasting real power. (TRUE)

Interest in the occult will grow worldwide. And alternative forms of healing will capture the imagination of an increasing number of people. Allopathic medicines and some big hospitals will be mired in controversies.

The government is expected to take decisive steps to move the privatisation process further even as a miserable monsoon will give it anxious moments. (TRUE) Several gruesome accidents and mishaps will shock the nation in the next six months. (TRUE) A leading industrialist will pass away adding to the gloom. (TRUE)

But the economy will see steady growth and the GDP will increase despite a marginal increase in inflation rates. There will be an all-round increase in tax collections. The last quarter of the year will be particularly memorable for Yashwant Sinha with exports booming. Also smiling will be TV personalities, consultants, admen, athletes, printers and travellers in 2002.

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