That said, India, in my estimation, will take some beating. Dravid is a fine captain and he must let his match-winners, the Tendulkars and Sehwags, Gangulys and Yuvrajs, play with freedom. Their creativity must be allowed to take centre-stage.

As a captain, Dravid also must get the most out of his men, even the slightest loss of ability on their part will not reflect well on him. This would apply not just to the 11, but to all 15 members of the squad.

Luck is no small issue either. For instance, in our campaign in 1996, we were very lucky to lose the toss in Kolkata in the semi-finals. I would have surely fielded had we won the toss. Fortunately, it was the Indians, who had to bat second on a crumbling pitch on that fateful evening.

As I see it, India, Sri Lanka, Australia and New Zealand will be the semi-finalists in this edition. Sri Lanka, because its bowling attack is better the attack we fielded in 1996. Chaminda Vaas and Muttiah Muralitharan need no introduction and Lasith Malinga could prove the surprise package. I still feel they should have had Upul Chandana and Nuwan Zoysa in the squad, for in a campaign of this order, you need members who can fulfil more than one role: an all-round side, to wit, as the best teams across different eras have shown.

Australia you can never discount.

They didn't have five-six of their best players in New Zealand, when they suffered their first-ever whitewash in ODI history. I sometimes wonder if it was pure bluff or real fatigue and other issues which kept the top guns away. But now all of them, except Brett Lee, are set to return and this would make them a force to reckon with. Australia has it in them to win four-five of their Super Eight games, which should take them into the semi-finals.

I would have had South Africa as the fourth semi-finalist, but for the disturbing trait they show in big tournaments. They crumble in big matches. I am also not convinced about their bowlers’ ability to win matches. Shaun Pollock on average tracks is no longer a force. I see only Jacques Kallis and Herschelle Gibbs as their true match-winners.

New Zealand, on the other hand, are blessed with that essential quality of all-round ability: their batting runs deep and none of them can be dismissed as tail-enders. They also, though, suffer from the big-match nerves. Hopefully, their recent run of successes will take care of such inconsistencies.

Pakistan's has been a curious and sad case. They have a very strong middle-order and their initial squad had a good mix of all-round cricketers, but the bowling has taken a beating with the withdrawal of Abdul Razzaq and now Shoaib Akhtar and Mohammad Asif. If the word about the absence of the last two from the squad is true, then they alone are to be blamed for it. It has hurt their team badly.

West Indies will be the dark horse of the tournament. They are a top-notch fielding side and have a good mix of youth and experience. Chris Gayle and Brian Lara will hold key to their fortunes. They too suffer from inconsistency as we all know and it can prove their undoing. If they were to start well, and in this context their opening game against Pakistan on March 13 will prove crucial, they can prove unstoppable.

As for England, despite their impressive wins against Australia this year, they don't appear to be Cup contenders yet. But it was very impressive to see the spirit of the side in the final weeks of one-day series in Australia, despite the mauling they suffered in the Ashes. Positive energy can work wonders and if they remember that lesson, they will be all right.